AIS NCCI 2024 – Day Two Morning Sessions – Many Important Concepts Covered
The AIS NCCI 2024 second morning presentation shared so many great concepts. I could not do a Top 10.
Growth – The Economy Grew When Predicted to Shrink
Stephen Cooper- Executive Director and Senior Economist
- Real GDP grows over time – natural process 2023 Forecast was for a recession – grew 3.5%; Nominal GDP – excess of 30%
- Vibecession – a neologism that refers to a disconnect between the economy of a country and the general public’s negative perception of it, which is mostly pessimistic. The term was coined by Kyla Scanlon in a June 2022 newsletter about Americans’ view of their economy.
- The economy is in good shape
- Sentiment is starting to follow the economy
- Interest rates will fall – not going to be a replay of the 1970s when oil was one of the inflationary sources
Other Key Insights: my comments in italics
- Early on, NCCI analysis showed that the economy was not in recession – NCCI was correct, and I did not believe them:(
- Labor market churn has slowed significantly. As employee turnover settles near pre-pandemic levels, we see signs of the labor market normalizing rather than deteriorating.
NCCI created a Workers Comp Weighted Medical Price Index and Medical Inflation Insights (WCWMI)that enables timely tracking of medical inflation and its subcomponents. I provided the chart at the top of this article. You can find the article with great analysis here.
Industry Drill Down—The Next Level
Sandra Kipust, FCAS, MAAA
Amanda Glish, FCAS, MAAA
The frequency of construction accidents decreased the most at 200% less due to a focus on safety -an amazing number
Construction – Burns severity increase = 12%
Most industries show consistent and steady declines in claim frequency. However, claim frequency increased in the transportation and warehousing sector in recent years. The couriers and messengers subsector is driving this increase, caused mostly by smaller severity claims.
Couriers and Messengers Ankle Foot 37% frequency increase
Retail Trade is the only industry where we are not seeing a consistent decline in frequency. This flatter trend is observed throughout retail, which could indicate a change in the type of risk/job activity
The AIS NCCI 2024 second morning sessions covered so many concepts. Let me know if you have any questions. The NCCI presenters did a great job as usual.
