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AIS NCCI 2024 – Day 2 Morning Sessions – Vibecession WCWMI ?


AIS NCCI 2024 – Day Two Morning Sessions – Many Important Concepts Covered

The AIS NCCI 2024 second morning presentation shared so many great concepts.  I could not do a Top 10.

Growth – The Economy Grew When Predicted to Shrink

Stephen Cooper- Executive Director and Senior Economist

AIS 2024 NCCI pic of WCMM statistic
(c) NCCI Boca Raton, FL – used with permission
  • Real GDP grows over time – natural process 2023 Forecast was for a recession – grew 3.5%; Nominal GDP – excess of 30%
  • Vibecession – a neologism that refers to a disconnect between the economy of a country and the general public’s negative perception of it, which is mostly pessimistic. The term was coined by Kyla Scanlon in a June 2022 newsletter about Americans’ view of their economy.
  • The economy is in good shape
  • Sentiment is starting to follow the economy
  • Interest rates will fall – not going to be a replay of the 1970s when oil was one of the inflationary sources

Other Key Insights: my comments in italics 

  • Early on, NCCI analysis showed that the economy was not in recession – NCCI was correct, and I did not believe them:(
  • Labor market churn has slowed significantly. As employee turnover settles near pre-pandemic levels, we see signs of the labor market normalizing rather than deteriorating.

NCCI created a Workers Comp Weighted Medical Price Index and Medical Inflation Insights (WCWMI)that enables timely tracking of medical inflation and its subcomponents.  I provided the chart at the top of this article. You can find the article with great analysis here.

Industry Drill Down—The Next Level  

Sandra Kipust, FCAS, MAAA
Amanda Glish, FCAS, MAAA

The frequency of construction accidents decreased the most at 200% less due to a focus on safety -an amazing number

Construction – Burns severity increase = 12%

Most industries show consistent and steady declines in claim frequency. However, claim frequency increased in the transportation and warehousing sector in recent years. The couriers and messengers subsector is driving this increase, caused mostly by smaller severity claims.

Couriers and Messengers Ankle Foot 37% frequency increase

Retail Trade is the only industry where we are not seeing a consistent decline in frequency. This flatter trend is observed throughout retail, which could indicate a change in the type of risk/job activity

The AIS NCCI 2024 second morning sessions covered so many concepts.  Let me know if you have any questions.  The NCCI presenters did a great job as usual.



James J Moore - Workers Comp Expert

Raleigh, NC, United States

About The Author...

James founded a Workers’ Compensation consulting firm, J&L Risk Management Consultants, Inc. in 1996. J&L’s mission is to reduce our clients’ Workers Compensation premiums by using time-tested techniques. J&L’s claims, premium, reserve and Experience Mod reviews have saved employers over $9.8 million in earned premiums over the last three years. J&L has saved numerous companies from bankruptcy proceedings as a result of insurance overpayments.

James has over 27 years of experience in insurance claims, audit, and underwriting, specializing in Workers’ Compensation. He has supervised, and managed the administration of Workers’ Compensation claims, and underwriting in over 45 states. His professional experience includes being the Director of Risk Management for the North Carolina School Boards Association. He created a very successful Workers’ Compensation Injury Rehabilitation Unit for school personnel.

James’s educational background, which centered on computer technology, culminated in earning a Masters of Business Administration (MBA); an Associate in Claims designation (AIC); and an Associate in Risk Management designation (ARM). He is a Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC) and a licensed financial advisor. The NC Department of Insurance has certified him as an insurance instructor. He also possesses a Bachelors’ Degree in Actuarial Science.

LexisNexis has twice recognized his blog as one of the Top 25 Blogs on Workers’ Compensation. J&L has been listed in AM Best’s Preferred Providers Directory for Insurance Experts – Workers Compensation for over eight years. He recently won the prestigious Baucom Shine Lifetime Achievement Award for his volunteer contributions to the area of risk management and safety. James was recently named as an instructor for the prestigious Insurance Academy.

James is on the Board of Directors and Treasurer of the North Carolina Mid-State Safety Council. He has published two manuals on Workers’ Compensation and three different claims processing manuals. He has also written and has been quoted in numerous articles on reducing Workers’ Compensation costs for public and private employers. James publishes a weekly newsletter with 7,000 readers.

He currently possess press credentials and am invited to various national Workers Compensation conferences as a reporter.

James’s articles or interviews on Workers’ Compensation have appeared in the following publications or websites:

  • Risk and Insurance Management Society (RIMS)
  • Entrepreneur Magazine
  • Bloomberg Business News
  • WorkCompCentral.com
  • Claims Magazine
  • Risk & Insurance Magazine
  • Insurance Journal
  • Workers Compensation.com
  • LinkedIn, Twitter, Facebook and other social media sites
  • Various trade publications


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