Notes and Quotes – NCCI 2026 AIS – Sessions – Great WC Info
The notes and quotes from NCCI’s Tuesday Sessions are worth a read. See the session notes below.
Thanks to Cristine and Madison for inviting me back to the 2026 Annual Insights Symposium. I had to be on my game for this one, as so much Workers Comp info was covered so quickly. I took over 35 pages of handwritten notes. Let us cover day one – a full day of sessions and then the 1/2 day of Wednesday sessions.
The unusual developments expounded upon at the conference were in two areas:
- New things learned – WCIO – what groups comprise the organization?
- Unusual State Developments – namely NV, CA, and NY, see the next article,
The info below came from NCCI press releases. I will add my comments in < >.
State of the Line – Presented by Donna Glenn, Chief Actuary
Key Takeaways
- Workers compensation net written premium decreased 0.2% in 2025. <That number may look like a small difference. This accounts for billions of dollars.>
- The Calendar Year 2025 combined ratio for workers compensation is 91%, marking the 12th year of underwriting gains. <Worker Comp remains one of the profitable lines>
- Workers compensation’s Accident Year 2025 combined ratio is 102%, with prior years continuing to experience downward reserve development.
- NCCI estimates a redundant industry reserve position of $14 billion.
- Lost-time claim frequency declined by 2% in 2025, a slower pace than the long-term average decline.<This trend has continued for over 20 years>
- Severity grew in 2025 with increases of 4% for both medical claim severity and indemnity claim severity. <Lower frequency while severity increases has been the norm for many years, excluding the pandemic>>
Quote from Donna’s Presentation
“There’s not a single number that defines the workers compensation system. Behind this year’s 91 combined ratio, industry mix, state differences, and carrier variation are all shaping results. As the Source You Trust, NCCI stays vigilant – interrogating the data and questioning outcomes to deliver deeper, actionable insights.”
State of the Line Dialogue –
Key Takeaways
- Frequency declines are the main driver behind loss cost decreases. <One of the great mysteries in WC – why has the accident rate fallen so much for so long? – the innovations in Carpal Tunnel risk management could be one reason>
- The decline in frequency is broad-based and heavily influenced by growth in payroll.
- NCCI’s ratemaking process accounts for the data but also reflects analytical insights.
The State of the Economy and Its Impact on WC
I have reposted many of Stephen Cooper’s, Practice Leader and Senior Economist – NCCI, articles on the economy. Why? Because as the economy and jobs go, so does the WC industry as a whole.
- While the economy was resilient in 2025 overall, led by consumer spending, state economic performance was more varied.
- Total employment barely grew in 2025, and growth was concentrated in the Health Care and Social Assistance sector. There have been early signs of the labor market strengthening in 2026.
- Inflation softened in 2025 but remained stubbornly above target.
Quote
“Employment growth on a month-to-month basis has been volatile over the past year, with most growth concentrated in one sector. Overall, however, the labor market remains in balance as both supply and demand have evened out, and there have been early signs of the labor market potentially strengthening in 2026.” – Stephen Cooper, Practice Leader and Senior Economist, NCCI
Demographic Forces Shaping Workplace Risk
Key Takeaways
- US population growth is slowing, which is constraining labor force growth.
- Workforce aging and other demographic shifts drive significant implications for workers compensation.
- Injury rates are higher—and falling more slowly—for older and younger workers than for those ages 25–44.
Quote
- “The US has seen slow population growth, keeping workforce growth constrained. Growth will slow even more in the next decade, and the workforce will be older. That is driving significant implications for the workers compensation system.” – Patrick Coate, Senior Economist, NCCI
From Demographics to Claims: Turning Data Into Insights
Key Takeaways
- The aging workforce presents a unique and growing risk exposure, as older workers experience elevated claim frequency and severity.
- Newly hired workers are a key driver of claim frequency. The prevalence of new-hire claims is closely tied to the strength of the labor market.
- Demographic trends vary substantially by industry.
- Employment growth in the health care sector continues to drive higher exposure to both new-hire claims and the aging workforce.
- NCCI is monitoring emerging trends in obesity rates and health insurance access that may have demographically concentrated impacts on the workforce.
Quote
- “Demographic forces help to shape the workers compensation claim environment. Factors such as employee tenure or the aging workforce are not abstract economic concepts; they have a real, tangible impact on the nature and frequency of claims that occur every day in the workers compensation system.” – Paul Hendrick, Practice Leader and Senior Actuary, NCCI
Navigating Medical Severity and Claim Outcomes
Key Takeaways
- Severity is not a single concept; it is the cumulative impact of the injury, the injured worker’s medical conditions, and their treatment over time.
- Demographics and comorbidities—especially age, wage, and health status—drive complexity, duration, and cost.
- Starting care at a nonhospital provider typically means far lower medical utilization. <Recommended by J&L for decades – walk-in clinics save $$$>
- Delays in physical therapy or major surgery put upward pressure on medical utilization.
- For claims closed within two years, the average time-to-close varies by jurisdiction between 30–50 weeks.
Quote
- “The time to close a workers compensation claim shows wide variation across jurisdictions: an additional 9 to 25 weeks after all medical services have been delivered. And that can have a meaningful impact on the cost of the claim.” – Raji Chadarevian, Executive Director – Actuarial Research, NCCI
NCCI Issues Links to Two Reports For Workers Comp – Notes and Quotes
<Two Free publications that NCCI provides to everyone can be found at the links below. Many slides are included in the State of the Line Report. Worth a look. The State of the Line Guide contains more of a narrative form. Both are free. The Guide provides many of the data sources for the notes and quotes that I mentioned earlier.
NCCI Announces Healthy Workers Compensation System at AIS 2026
May 12, 2026 (ORLANDO, FL)—The performance of the workers compensation system remains healthy according to the 2025 metrics that the National Council on Compensation Insurance (NCCI) released today.
Workers compensation net written premium decreased 0.2% in 2025. Private carriers produced their 12th consecutive year of underwriting profitability with a Calendar Year 2025 combined ratio of 91.
“There’s not a single number that defines the workers compensation system. Behind this year’s combined ratio of 91, factors such as industry mix, state differences, and carrier variation are all shaping results,” said Donna Glenn, FCAS, MAAA, Chief Actuary, NCCI. “As The Source You Trust, NCCI stays vigilant—interrogating the data and questioning outcomes to deliver deeper, actionable insights.”
NCCI’s State of the Line Report and the State of the Line Guide include these key insights:
- Workers compensation net written premium decreased by 0.2% in 2025
- The Calendar Year 2025 combined ratio for workers compensation is 91%, marking 12 consecutive years of underwriting gains
- Workers compensation’s Accident Year 2025 combined ratio is 102%, with prior years continuing to experience downward reserve development
- NCCI estimates a redundant industry reserve position of $14 billion
- Lost-time claim frequency declined by 2% in 2025, a slower pace of decline than the long-term average decline
- Severity grew in 2025 with increases of 4% for both medical claim severity and indemnity claim severity
