The Accident Curve Comes From The Learning Curve
There has been a large amount of recent traffic and buzz on the articles in the blog that covered the Learning Curve or the Accident Curve. There was an old adage in Risk Management that said “90% of all accidents happen the first time a person uses a tool, machine, etc.”
If and when the economy recovers there will be an increase in accidents overall. I once performed my own research while working with a WC carrier many years ago during the awful Hurricane Hugo. One surprising statistic was the rate of rebuilding construction accidents in the Charleston, SC area.
I had decided to research if such an accident curve exists or at least a similar type statistic. The Solomon Curve did not directly relate to Workers Compensation. The curve does represent a good accident curve even though it involves speed vs. accident rate.
Human error accounts for 90% of all traffic accidents according to this article. One has to wonder exactly what was the other 10%?
The venerable NCCI does have a great chart they include in most of their presentations. The chart is on page 42 titled Countrywide Workers Compensation Loss Time Claim Frequency….. Looking at the 2010 figure, one can see a very sharp increase in the 2010 claim frequency.
Looking at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data for Unemployment, the unemployment rate did drop from 10.0% to 9.3% over that year which may account for the matching time period on the NCCI chart. A .7% drop in unemployment could have contributed to the rise in accident rates.
I will publish a new article when I can find more relevant statistics – if they do exist.
Also Read: Combined Ratio Difference Debate – Calendar vs. Accident Year
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