NCCI Labor Market Insights Report April 2026 – Sustained Volatility
The NCCI Labor Market Insights Report for April 2026 was released this week. My interpretation was that it showed sustained volatility. Yes, if you are an employer or work in the Workers Comp industry, this report will be of interest. Why? Because the labor market feeds into how Workers Comp is priced and the associated E-Mod calculations. See the italicized paragraph below.
Check out the report here. Worth your time. : Labor Market Insights – April 2026
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Employment growth sharply rebounded in March from February’s disappointing levels.
The 3-month average of employment growth after March stood at 68,000 jobs per month overall and 79,000 jobs per month in the private sector. This average rate of growth is an improvement over what we saw in 2025 and may indicate that the labor market is starting to slowly recover from last year’s weakness.
At the industry level, job growth was broader based than last year. Health care remained the leading industry, but the economy also saw strong job growth in construction, manufacturing, trade, and leisure and hospitality services.
Despite strong gains in employment, wage growth ticked down slightly. Recently, wages have been the dominant factor for payroll growth, the basis for workers compensation premium. There remains uncertainty around the sustainability of the strong wage trends we’ve seen for the past several years.
February’s net employment decline stemmed from a sharp drop in hires with little change in the trend in separations.
This, combined with the strong rebound in employment growth in March, suggests to us that February’s weakness was likely a temporary phenomenon rather than the start of a new trend.
To view a larger version of the above chart, click here.
Big Picture: Employment growth on a month-to-month basis has been volatile over the past year. Looking at the trend over several months gives us a better sense of the state of the labor market. Employment growth has accelerated somewhat in early 2026. While encouraging to see, it is too early to be confident in this new trend.
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My Conclusion – The sustained volatility results appeared again this month. The forecasted employment numbers were 59,000. The job growth numbers came in at 178,000. What is good for the labor market is good for Workers Comp growth.
