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Employer Gut Feelings After the Pandemic – Any Changes?


Employer Gut Feelings Changed Post-pandemic?

After researching this topic, AI recommended I use intuition instead of gut feelings.  As I do not use or listen to AI, let us stick with gut feelings.  I originally wrote an article on employer gut feelings in 2016 on this topic.  I compared intuition with predictive analytics. 

The accuracy of predictive analytics has improved over the last eight years since I wrote the article.  The commentors on the article recommended that I accept that predictive analytics remains superior to gut instincts.

pic dartboard darts employer gut feelings
Public Domain – PeterPan23

Environment Changed – Not the Interpretation

According to an informative article in Psychology Today on trusting gut feelings:

Intuition is a highly sophisticated process. We notice patterns through past experiences, store these patterns and associated information into long-term memory, and then retrieve the information when we see these patterns again in our environment.

When I wrote the article yesterday on workers comp budgeting after the pandemic, the subject of employer intuition came up as we are seeing new levels or variables that have not been in place since the 1980s such as inflation and interest rates.

The “patterns we see again” referenced in the Psychology Today article have not been around for 40+ years.  Twenty-year business cycles have been ignored or discounted in the workers comp world.  Even Loss Development Factors (LDFs) usually only cover 10 years maximum.

I recommended a twenty-year Experience Mod to match the business cycles. From my discussions with agents and underwriters many workers comp insurers are using longer-tailed predictive analytics than in the past with five years minimum timeframes.

Bottom Line on Employer Gut Feelings

Overall, I think that businesses may want to rely more on predictive analytics without completely substituting AI for common sense.  A business owner or risk manager still possesses enough employer intuition to make sound decisions.



James J Moore - Workers Comp Expert

Raleigh, NC, United States

About The Author...

James founded a Workers’ Compensation consulting firm, J&L Risk Management Consultants, Inc. in 1996. J&L’s mission is to reduce our clients’ Workers Compensation premiums by using time-tested techniques. J&L’s claims, premium, reserve and Experience Mod reviews have saved employers over $9.8 million in earned premiums over the last three years. J&L has saved numerous companies from bankruptcy proceedings as a result of insurance overpayments.

James has over 27 years of experience in insurance claims, audit, and underwriting, specializing in Workers’ Compensation. He has supervised, and managed the administration of Workers’ Compensation claims, and underwriting in over 45 states. His professional experience includes being the Director of Risk Management for the North Carolina School Boards Association. He created a very successful Workers’ Compensation Injury Rehabilitation Unit for school personnel.

James’s educational background, which centered on computer technology, culminated in earning a Masters of Business Administration (MBA); an Associate in Claims designation (AIC); and an Associate in Risk Management designation (ARM). He is a Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC) and a licensed financial advisor. The NC Department of Insurance has certified him as an insurance instructor. He also possesses a Bachelors’ Degree in Actuarial Science.

LexisNexis has twice recognized his blog as one of the Top 25 Blogs on Workers’ Compensation. J&L has been listed in AM Best’s Preferred Providers Directory for Insurance Experts – Workers Compensation for over eight years. He recently won the prestigious Baucom Shine Lifetime Achievement Award for his volunteer contributions to the area of risk management and safety. James was recently named as an instructor for the prestigious Insurance Academy.

James is on the Board of Directors and Treasurer of the North Carolina Mid-State Safety Council. He has published two manuals on Workers’ Compensation and three different claims processing manuals. He has also written and has been quoted in numerous articles on reducing Workers’ Compensation costs for public and private employers. James publishes a weekly newsletter with 7,000 readers.

He currently possess press credentials and am invited to various national Workers Compensation conferences as a reporter.

James’s articles or interviews on Workers’ Compensation have appeared in the following publications or websites:

  • Risk and Insurance Management Society (RIMS)
  • Entrepreneur Magazine
  • Bloomberg Business News
  • WorkCompCentral.com
  • Claims Magazine
  • Risk & Insurance Magazine
  • Insurance Journal
  • Workers Compensation.com
  • LinkedIn, Twitter, Facebook and other social media sites
  • Various trade publications


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