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Workers Comp Pandemic Effect Over in March 2027 – Really?


Workers Comp Pandemic Effect Slowly Works Out of Numbers

March 1, 2023,  would have been the end of the COVID-19 emergency.  I am assuming that California was the last state to remove the emergency. I was asked this question in an email last month.  How long will the pandemic effect show up in Workers Comp numbers?

workers comp pandemic effect pic of hare and tortoise
Public Domain – Project Gutenberg

So, policies, not just California-based ones, that became effective 3/1/2023 would not have had the workers comp pandemic effect attached to them.  Let us count out the end of the workers comp pandemic effect.

I had written a few articles back in 2020 and 2021 in response to workers comp pundits wanting to know the immediate workers comp pandemic effect numbers.  My articles referred to the delayed workers comp system as insurance carriers do not report full policy numbers until the first UNIT STAT date, no matter the state.

Predictive analytics has changed the way that carriers underwrite insured clients.  Many underwriters are now looking back up to 10+ years at workers comp claim histories instead of the usual four.

Let us count out how that works –  valued means claim valuations (Rating Bureau Total Incurred)

March 1, 2023 – March 1, 2024 policy = No effect

  • Valued 9//1/2024  (1st UNIT STAT date)
  • Applies to March 1, 2025 – March 1, 2026 policy Experience Mod – still has two years of pandemic data
  • Valued again 9/1/2025 (2nd UNIT STAT date)
  • Applies to March 1, 2026 – March 1, 2027 policy Experience Mod – still has one year of pandemic data
  • Valued again 9/1/2026 (3rd UNIT STAT date)
  • Applies to March 1, 2027 – March 1, 2028 policy Experience Mod – none in this policy

The March 1, 2027 policy would be the first policy year to not have any of the pandemic policy years included in the Experience Mods.

Workers Comp Pandemic Effect – Just the Numbers

Yes, the effect of the pandemic will linger on for what could be decades.  The E-Mod/X-Mod system will still have the effect present for four more years.  That is the way the numbers are structured for claims development.

I wanted to show how the Experience Mod numbers would be affected overall.   This article may generate questions.  Please comment or email me.



Experience Mod Predictions Accurate?

Experience Mod Predictions – Accuracy Depends on Who/Whom You Ask Most Experience Mod predictions can be a tedious process that has cofounded most people working

James J Moore - Workers Comp Expert

Raleigh, NC, United States

About The Author...

James founded a Workers’ Compensation consulting firm, J&L Risk Management Consultants, Inc. in 1996. J&L’s mission is to reduce our clients’ Workers Compensation premiums by using time-tested techniques. J&L’s claims, premium, reserve and Experience Mod reviews have saved employers over $9.8 million in earned premiums over the last three years. J&L has saved numerous companies from bankruptcy proceedings as a result of insurance overpayments.

James has over 27 years of experience in insurance claims, audit, and underwriting, specializing in Workers’ Compensation. He has supervised, and managed the administration of Workers’ Compensation claims, and underwriting in over 45 states. His professional experience includes being the Director of Risk Management for the North Carolina School Boards Association. He created a very successful Workers’ Compensation Injury Rehabilitation Unit for school personnel.

James’s educational background, which centered on computer technology, culminated in earning a Masters of Business Administration (MBA); an Associate in Claims designation (AIC); and an Associate in Risk Management designation (ARM). He is a Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC) and a licensed financial advisor. The NC Department of Insurance has certified him as an insurance instructor. He also possesses a Bachelors’ Degree in Actuarial Science.

LexisNexis has twice recognized his blog as one of the Top 25 Blogs on Workers’ Compensation. J&L has been listed in AM Best’s Preferred Providers Directory for Insurance Experts – Workers Compensation for over eight years. He recently won the prestigious Baucom Shine Lifetime Achievement Award for his volunteer contributions to the area of risk management and safety. James was recently named as an instructor for the prestigious Insurance Academy.

James is on the Board of Directors and Treasurer of the North Carolina Mid-State Safety Council. He has published two manuals on Workers’ Compensation and three different claims processing manuals. He has also written and has been quoted in numerous articles on reducing Workers’ Compensation costs for public and private employers. James publishes a weekly newsletter with 7,000 readers.

He currently possess press credentials and am invited to various national Workers Compensation conferences as a reporter.

James’s articles or interviews on Workers’ Compensation have appeared in the following publications or websites:

  • Risk and Insurance Management Society (RIMS)
  • Entrepreneur Magazine
  • Bloomberg Business News
  • WorkCompCentral.com
  • Claims Magazine
  • Risk & Insurance Magazine
  • Insurance Journal
  • Workers Compensation.com
  • LinkedIn, Twitter, Facebook and other social media sites
  • Various trade publications


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