Workers Comp Claims Pandemic Data – Running With 1/4 In The Tank
I recently brought this up in a Zoom(r) meeting. A potential client wanted me to assist in building a Workers Comp claims pandemic model.
They were aghast when I said that only approximately 1/4 of the data is in right now on the pandemic if rating bureau data is used for the model.
Simple Workers Comp Claims Pandemic Data Chart
| Policy Begins | Policy Ends | Pandemic Fraction | Date Reported To Bureau |
| 05/01/2019 | 05/01/2020 | 1/12 | 11/01/2020 |
| 06/01/2019 | 06/01/2020 | 2/12 | 12/01/2020 |
| 07/01/2019 | 07/01/2020 | 3/12 | 01/01/2021 |
| 08/01/2019 | 08/01/2020 | 4/12 | 02/01/2021 |
| 09/01/2019 | 09/01/2020 | 5/12 | 03/01/2021 |
| 10/01/2019 | 10/01/2020 | 6/12 | 04/01/2021 |
The date the data is reported to the bureau is called the UNIT STAT date.
Three questions came up in the meeting.
- Why did I not include the 4/1/19 to 4/1/2020 policy?
- Why is it 25% when your fraction shows 50%?
- Why are you using 2019 policies?
My corresponding answers were:
- I considered the start of the pandemic 04/01/2020. The Workers Comp claims pandemic data should start there. The policies that covered 04/01/2019 – 04/01/2020 would not cover any pandemic dates. I could have used 04/02/2019 or 04/03/2019, etc. but the chart would have been massive.
- The chart could have been continued through today, but the numbers reported to the rating bureau (right column) have not been reported after 04/01/2021. The policies after 10/20/2020 would have to be included up until today to complete a year of the pandemic (as requested). So only 50% of 6/12 would be considered as workers comp pandemic data info.
- These policies partially covered the pandemic months. As of now, the rating bureaus have received policy data through 10/15/2020 – at the height of the pandemic.
Chart Updates Will Be Needed – End Of Pandemic?
I did not want to go beyond the recent UNISTAT reporting date of 04/01/2021 – the right column. I am not sure of the exact date that the pandemic will end. Some scientists say that we are in an endemic now, not a pandemic in the US.
One concept to remember is not all claims were COVID-19 claims. I was pointing to the effect on the workers comp pandemic data.
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