COVID-19 Pandemic Statistical Madness Rears Its Ugly Head

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn

COVID-19 Pandemic Statistical Madness – Whose Numbers Are Correct?

The COVID-19 Pandemic statistical madness has reached epic proportions.   I usually do not stray from Workers Comp articles.  That is why you read this blog and the newsletter.   However, the recent numbers flashed on screens across the world gave me pause.

simulation of COVID-19 Pandemic Statistical Madness
Wikimedia Public Use License – Graham Beards

I usually quote a large number of statistics such as X-Mods, LDF’s, and other organization’s studies.   Those numbers, except for a few organizations, are usually static.  They vary a small amount.  Typically, the rating bureaus and the BLS provide great numbers.

The White House’s press briefings were based in solid numbers until the models were unveiled over the last 10 days.  Models and predictive analytics go together.   I am a fan of neither as the numbers can change quickly when covering any type of datasets.

One example of models that are supposedly magically correct is the hurricane models.  The graphic below shows the variance in the predictions of hurricanes from 2012-2016.  If the forecasters were accurate, then the line would be flat-lined at zero.   This graphic is not the case.

Graph of Hurricane Prediction COVID-19 Pandemic Statistical Madness
(c) Five Thirty Eight

The associated article to the above graph can be found here.   One quote from the article that jumped off the screen was:

…..hurricane models are not good at predicting rapid intensification events such as Maria because so few of them occur. 

You are asking, wait – your article title refers to the coronavirus, but now we are on hurricanes?   Take a look at the same organization’s article on COVID-10 pandemic statistical madness.  Check it out here, no really – take a look and my article will start to make sense.

Chart after chart in that article shows that the COVID-19 experts disagree significantly on the Coronavirus statistics.  COVID-19 remains a rarity, so knowing the outcomes compares to forecasting a hurricane. 

My suggestion is to keep an open mind when the barrage of numbers starts every morning on COVID-19.   Check out the Google Doodle on any Google Search Page 

for a great mini-guide on and avoid the COVID-10 Pandemic Statistical Madness.

 

©J&L Risk Management Inc Copyright Notice

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn

5 Responses

  1. right. the hurricane statistics are static for the thought that they might be prepared from previously recorded hurricane events.

    the current predictions of the virus event is constantly changing and based on information that is demographically gathered form many sources. on what information would a be reliable to make a prediction? Big job.

    the best case scenario could be to predict most formidable event in this case of prevention of illness?

    Good newsletter.

Comments are closed.

Table of Contents

Related...

James Moore

Raleigh, NC, United States

About The Author...

James founded a Workers’ Compensation consulting firm, J&L Risk Mgmt Consultants, Inc. in 1996. J&L’s mission is to reduce our clients’ Workers Compensation premiums by using time-tested techniques. J&L’s claims, premium, reserve and Experience Mod reviews have saved employers over $9.8 million in earned premiums over the last three years. J&L has saved numerous companies from bankruptcy proceedings as a result of insurance overpayments.

James has over 27 years of experience in insurance claims, audit, and underwriting, specializing in Workers’ Compensation. He has supervised, and managed the administration of Workers’ Compensation claims, and underwriting in over 45 states. His professional experience includes being the Director of Risk Management for the North Carolina School Boards Association. He created a very successful Workers’ Compensation Injury Rehabilitation Unit for school personnel.

James’s educational background, which centered on computer technology, culminated in earning a Masters of Business Administration (MBA); an Associate in Claims designation (AIC); and an Associate in Risk Management designation (ARM). He is a Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC) and a licensed financial advisor. The NC Department of Insurance has certified him as an insurance instructor. He also possesses a Bachelors’ Degree in Actuarial Science.

LexisNexis has twice recognized his blog as one of the Top 25 Blogs on Workers’ Compensation. J&L has been listed in AM Best’s Preferred Providers Directory for Insurance Experts – Workers Compensation for over eight years. He recently won the prestigious Baucom Shine Lifetime Achievement Award for his volunteer contributions to the area of risk management and safety. James was recently named as an instructor for the prestigious Insurance Academy.

James is on the Board of Directors and Treasurer of the North Carolina Mid-State Safety Council. He has published two manuals on Workers’ Compensation and three different claims processing manuals. He has also written and has been quoted in numerous articles on reducing Workers’ Compensation costs for public and private employers. James publishes a weekly newsletter with 7,000 readers.

He currently possess press credentials and am invited to various national Workers Compensation conferences as a reporter.

James’s articles or interviews on Workers’ Compensation have appeared in the following publications or websites:

  • Risk and Insurance Management Society (RIMS)
  • Entrepreneur Magazine
  • Bloomberg Business News
  • WorkCompCentral.com
  • Claims Magazine
  • Risk & Insurance Magazine
  • Insurance Journal
  • Workers Compensation.com
  • LinkedIn, Twitter, Facebook and other social media sites
  • Various trade publications

Subscribe

Get the latest workers' comp news FREE!

Name
This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.