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Predictive Modeling For Workers Compensation – Data On Horizon?


Workers Comp Predictive Modeling – Big Data Is The Key

The Workers Comp predictive modeling prognosticators say that predicting workers comp data is on the horizon.  I was just reading over Mark Wall’s Work Comp Analysis Group in LinkedIn. If you are in Workers Comp and you do not follow the group, you are missing out on a number of great discussions.

Graphic of Silver Letter of Big Data on Top of Clouds Predictive Modeling Concept

There was a PHD’er that had a very-well written article on another Workers Comp blog concerning Workers Comp predictive models (PM). I chimed in and then decided to give Mark’s group some exposure – like it needs it with over 11,000 members.

I am for Workers Comp PM as much as anyone else in the Workers Comp business. However, as I mentioned in a posting to the group, property casualty claims (other than crop) have predictive models that are based on fixed variables. (property, auto, etc.)

Workers Compensation has to deal with an individual’s psychographic makeup along with the least predictive variable which is the healing of the human body. I have always noticed the variability of how people heal is nothing other than amazing. There are no two people alike in this respect.

Graphic Predictive Modeling Big Data
Wikimedia Commons – Camelia.boban

Liberty Mutual is assembling the largest database in history. I hope they share some of their prognostications. Their research will likely be earth-shaking. I am not sure when their PM model will be finished to the point where they can publish any of the results. They may use it as a competitive advantage in the marketplace.

I have undertaken general research on a group of 7,000 and 5,000 files in the past. One group was of public employees while the other was random private companies. I will share what I found in my post tomorrow concerting PM. One hint of what I found was posted by me on Mark’s blog.

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James J Moore - Workers Comp Expert

Raleigh, NC, United States

About The Author...

James founded a Workers’ Compensation consulting firm, J&L Risk Management Consultants, Inc. in 1996. J&L’s mission is to reduce our clients’ Workers Compensation premiums by using time-tested techniques. J&L’s claims, premium, reserve and Experience Mod reviews have saved employers over $9.8 million in earned premiums over the last three years. J&L has saved numerous companies from bankruptcy proceedings as a result of insurance overpayments.

James has over 27 years of experience in insurance claims, audit, and underwriting, specializing in Workers’ Compensation. He has supervised, and managed the administration of Workers’ Compensation claims, and underwriting in over 45 states. His professional experience includes being the Director of Risk Management for the North Carolina School Boards Association. He created a very successful Workers’ Compensation Injury Rehabilitation Unit for school personnel.

James’s educational background, which centered on computer technology, culminated in earning a Masters of Business Administration (MBA); an Associate in Claims designation (AIC); and an Associate in Risk Management designation (ARM). He is a Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC) and a licensed financial advisor. The NC Department of Insurance has certified him as an insurance instructor. He also possesses a Bachelors’ Degree in Actuarial Science.

LexisNexis has twice recognized his blog as one of the Top 25 Blogs on Workers’ Compensation. J&L has been listed in AM Best’s Preferred Providers Directory for Insurance Experts – Workers Compensation for over eight years. He recently won the prestigious Baucom Shine Lifetime Achievement Award for his volunteer contributions to the area of risk management and safety. James was recently named as an instructor for the prestigious Insurance Academy.

James is on the Board of Directors and Treasurer of the North Carolina Mid-State Safety Council. He has published two manuals on Workers’ Compensation and three different claims processing manuals. He has also written and has been quoted in numerous articles on reducing Workers’ Compensation costs for public and private employers. James publishes a weekly newsletter with 7,000 readers.

He currently possess press credentials and am invited to various national Workers Compensation conferences as a reporter.

James’s articles or interviews on Workers’ Compensation have appeared in the following publications or websites:

  • Risk and Insurance Management Society (RIMS)
  • Entrepreneur Magazine
  • Bloomberg Business News
  • WorkCompCentral.com
  • Claims Magazine
  • Risk & Insurance Magazine
  • Insurance Journal
  • Workers Compensation.com
  • LinkedIn, Twitter, Facebook and other social media sites
  • Various trade publications


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