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Workers Comp E-Mod X-Mod Forecast Errors By Expert


E-Mod X-Mod Forecasting Errors Due To Unit Stat Date

Workers Comp E-Mod X-Mod calculating errors.Recently, I had come across some work from two so called Workers Comp “experts” that had guaranteed the accuracy of their E-Mod/X-Mod predictions for their client employers. I had thought this was interesting and decided to examine their predictions further.

Graphic Of Alert Icon E-Mod X-Mod Error

The one obvious error in calculating the E-Mods/X-Mods for the next year is that these were magically performed at the end of the prior policy year. This will just not work. There is a date called the Unit Stat date that is the deadline for the reserves on the applicable files to be applied to the  Experience Rating calculations.

The Unit Stat date is usually 6 months after the expiration of the last policy. To be entirely accurate, a consultant could as of today accurately calculate the future E-Mod/X-Mod for a policy that expired 5/1/09 to be applied to a policy that started on 5/1/10.

Why is the system set up that way? The six month delay is to enable the Workers Compensation adjusters to have time to assess accurate reserves on the files. The usually means to increase the files – rarely does it reflect many reductions. I am not for or against the Workers Comp Experience Rating System. It is the system we have in place.

One of the most frustrating situations occurs when the insurance carrier reports the claims data late.  The tardiness can wreak havoc when the rating bureau calculates the Experience Mod again and assigns a new one to an insured.  The employer may never see the recalculation coming.

Also Read: What Is A Guaranteed Cost Program In Workers Compensation?

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Experience Mod Predictions Accurate?

Experience Mod Predictions – Accuracy Depends on Who/Whom You Ask Most Experience Mod predictions can be a tedious process that has cofounded most people working

James J Moore - Workers Comp Expert

Raleigh, NC, United States

About The Author...

James founded a Workers’ Compensation consulting firm, J&L Risk Management Consultants, Inc. in 1996. J&L’s mission is to reduce our clients’ Workers Compensation premiums by using time-tested techniques. J&L’s claims, premium, reserve and Experience Mod reviews have saved employers over $9.8 million in earned premiums over the last three years. J&L has saved numerous companies from bankruptcy proceedings as a result of insurance overpayments.

James has over 27 years of experience in insurance claims, audit, and underwriting, specializing in Workers’ Compensation. He has supervised, and managed the administration of Workers’ Compensation claims, and underwriting in over 45 states. His professional experience includes being the Director of Risk Management for the North Carolina School Boards Association. He created a very successful Workers’ Compensation Injury Rehabilitation Unit for school personnel.

James’s educational background, which centered on computer technology, culminated in earning a Masters of Business Administration (MBA); an Associate in Claims designation (AIC); and an Associate in Risk Management designation (ARM). He is a Chartered Financial Consultant (ChFC) and a licensed financial advisor. The NC Department of Insurance has certified him as an insurance instructor. He also possesses a Bachelors’ Degree in Actuarial Science.

LexisNexis has twice recognized his blog as one of the Top 25 Blogs on Workers’ Compensation. J&L has been listed in AM Best’s Preferred Providers Directory for Insurance Experts – Workers Compensation for over eight years. He recently won the prestigious Baucom Shine Lifetime Achievement Award for his volunteer contributions to the area of risk management and safety. James was recently named as an instructor for the prestigious Insurance Academy.

James is on the Board of Directors and Treasurer of the North Carolina Mid-State Safety Council. He has published two manuals on Workers’ Compensation and three different claims processing manuals. He has also written and has been quoted in numerous articles on reducing Workers’ Compensation costs for public and private employers. James publishes a weekly newsletter with 7,000 readers.

He currently possess press credentials and am invited to various national Workers Compensation conferences as a reporter.

James’s articles or interviews on Workers’ Compensation have appeared in the following publications or websites:

  • Risk and Insurance Management Society (RIMS)
  • Entrepreneur Magazine
  • Bloomberg Business News
  • WorkCompCentral.com
  • Claims Magazine
  • Risk & Insurance Magazine
  • Insurance Journal
  • Workers Compensation.com
  • LinkedIn, Twitter, Facebook and other social media sites
  • Various trade publications


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